Recent confusing signals about the economy will leave some businesses in a
very difficult position by June 30, 2009! When you're planning for this year, it's probably wise to take
a long, cold shower!
Here's a classic example. Late last year (2007), information in the caravan industry showed a demand
almost twice the industry capacity to supply, with long lead times, and very fraught retailers. Now
demand has come right off, with the combination of rising fuel costs and strong RBA steps to slow the
economy. Plans which once seemed bold, to invest in increasing capacity to meet the high demand, now look
questionable. What will be important for you in budgeting for these uncertain times?
First, have a plan! For many small businesses, the idea of a business plan seems
academic, impractical, and a waste of time. "They never work out anyway!", or so it's said. That is true,
literally, in most cases - although businesses with a plan do better than those without! In turn, that
makes writing the budget easy - it's just your plan set to numbers!
Second, look at the numbers! This is really important. A few weeks ago, Mark McInnes,
CEO of David Jones, said that his company was planning on a slower rate of growth, but still working for
strong growth,. Having looked at what is happening in the economy, that company saw how its numbers would
be affected, and planned to do something about it. There's that word again - they 'planned'!
Third, look beyond the numbers! This is even more important. When commenting on the
David Jones plans to continue strong growth in a slowing economy, McInnes said David Jones had ordered
more cosmetics and less plasma TVs - clearly signalling a planned change of attack in response to the
work of the Reserve Bank in slowing demand for consumer durables. What is even more startling, is that
McInnes told his audience that these plans had been in process for eighteen months! They looked ahead. So
can we!
Fourth, work out what is important for your business! Do you depend on big ticket
items - the kind of discretionary spending that needs consumer credit to facilitate? Probably need to
work on the service and support side of the business to provide a bolster against a slide in consumer
demand. Do you depend on smaller sales value items? (Generally that means consumables.) Probably better
focus on items that give a 'high value in use' to strengthen your competitive edge, and support that
product mix with budget lines to 'signal the savings'.
Fifth, plan your activities to maximise your strengths! Your advertising plan, your
sales training workshops, your merchandising plans, and your buying plans all need to match your emphasis
on what's important for your business. Make it a comprehensive plan - one that takes into account all the
parts of your business. And watch your stock holding like a hawk!!!
Sixth, plan for a crunch! General consumer demand has already weakened significantly.
If demand for your products and services has not slowed yet, it almost certainly will. When an economic
slowdown comes, it doesn't hit everything all at once. Generally it hits investment industries first,
that 's why there is so much concern that mining investment is not slowing. Unless investment slows, there will be an ever bigger crunch
coming. Next in line is retail spending - hence the David Jones comments about its plans for this year.
Last of all, long lead infrastructure projects get hit, and pipeline and electricity projects get
deferred. Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia is on record (RBA statement, 06 May,
2008)"
"In order to reduce inflation over time, growth in aggregate demand needs to be significantly slower than
it was in 2007. Evidence is accumulating that this is occurring. Indicators of household spending have
recorded subdued outcomes over recent months, and demand for credit by both households and businesses has
weakened."
Remember, you must plan for what you can see will happen! Taking
last year's figures as a guide for this year, and saying, "That'll do for our budget", is indeed a risky,
risky business!
You can plan for better times - just like David Jones has!
If you'd like to find out more, talk to us, or ask us a question here!
Remember, there's no charge or obligation, and you get a whole hour's consultation free.
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